Monday, July 20, 2009
Confessions of an Economics Junkie
Coming home from school typically implies a cynical slump into the nearest piece of cushioned furniture. My key hit the lock and was answered with, “The Dow is down 700 points!” Stock market observation and macro-economics is my favorite hobby, so my natural response was, “70?” The number 700 is repeated as I rush to the living room. My mother’s girlfriend was glued to MSNBC, a full ashtray of cigarettes butts before her. I stood beside the couch unable to believe the sweeping chain of red numbers scrolling across the bottom of the screen. I knew the economy was bad and replaying the proceeding months should have expected a drastic fiscal downturn, but those three digits are still a slap in the face. I shoved a cigarette in my mouth and struck my lighter to get past the initial shock and better analyze the situation. The floor was frantic – reporters staggered through details not yet official, calling on every financial correspondent hoping for different numbers. I told her to change the channel expecting one reporter with controlled emotions. CNN through FOX News, the words were vaguely altered, the panic stricken eyes the same. They artfully avoided the one phrase we were all thinking: Great Depression. I imagined old newsreels of businessmen and brokers jumping off the tops of buildings rather than seeing their portfolios in shambles. A representative of a heavy hitting brokerage firm came on to discuss the what, how and why? He’s the first stoic face I’ve seen in the past hour. This was a direct contrast to the cubicle pool behind him. Every broker was rapidly grabbing phones and the lines of the their mouths moved viciously over explanations. I most clearly remember a young broker over the stoic’s right shoulder. Phone in hand, he jumped up, arms flaying, face taut insinuating the diatribe he was unloading. His balled fist slammed onto the desk, as every good economics junkie watched, before collapsing back into his seat. You had to chuckle at the writhing emotions, but admit that was our feeling: anger followed by a humbling defeat. I began a strong pace after opening Google finance to attempt to find a pattern by studying interrelated industries. My head cocked towards the screen, I heard ‘It was speculator fear and bear market loathing that brought us to this.’ I burst out laughing having read too much Hunter Thompson to ignore the irony and humor contained in the female reporter’s conclusion of the day. Now recalling the event I am forced to reconsider the statement. At the time I didn’t believe the simple conclusion, but the plunge certainly played into a domino effect of fiscal terror. The journalistic fervor and wild-eyed brokers brought greater trepidation and while a market downturn was inevitable certainly fear and over indulgent speculation played a large role in the market's crash from September to October 2008. In retrospect the 2008 crash is now considered the result of a mass panic, which as witnessed through televised reports, is the best interpretation of the economic event.
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I'm glad you brought up the way historical events can shape our interpretation of things we see on the media today (i.e. any stock market crash immediately recalls The Great Depression).
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